MODELING AND CONTROL OF COVID-19

We generated a high-granularity agent-based model in order to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a mid-size town and test different intervention policies and what/if scenarios. The following list of publications contains the developments of our model and the different analyses performed:

• Truszkowska A., Behring B., Hasanyan J., Zino L., Butail S., Caroppo E., Jiang Z.P., Rizzo A., and Porfiri M., High-resolution agent-based modeling of COVID-19 spreading in a small town. Advanced Theory and Simulations, 4, 2000277, 2021
  Cover of the March 2021 Issue of Advanced Theory and Simulations. Wiley Top Cited Paper 2020–2021 and 2021–2022. Wiley Top Downloaded Article 2021

• Truszkowska A., Thakore M., Zino L., Butail S., Caroppo E., Jiang Z.P., Rizzo A., and Porfiri M., Designing the safe reopening of US towns through high-resolution agent-based modeling. Advanced Theory and Simulations, 4, 2100157, 2021
  Cover of the September 2021 Issue of Advanced Theory and Simulations.

• Truszkowska A., Zino L., Butail S., Caroppo E., Jiang Z.P., Rizzo A., and Porfiri M., Predicting the effects of waning vaccine immunity against COVID-19 through high-resolution agent-based modeling. Advanced Theory and Simulations, 5, 2100521, 2022
  Cover of the June 2022 Issue of Advanced Theory and Simulations.

• Truszkowska A., Fayed M., Wei S., Zino L., Butail S., Caroppo E., Jiang Z.P., Rizzo A., and Porfiri M., Urban determinants of COVID-19 spread: A comparative study across three cities in New York State. Journal of Urban Health, 99(5), 909-921, 2022

• Truszkowska A., Zino L., Butail S., Caroppo E., Jiang Z.P., Rizzo A., and Porfiri M., Exploring a COVID-19 endemic scenario: high-resolution agent-based modeling of multiple variants. Advanced Theory and Simulations, 6, 2200481, 2022
  Cover of the January 2023 Issue of Advanced Theory and Simulations.

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We develop model-informed methods to reconstruct and evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention policies. These efforts are summarized in the following publications:

• Parino F., Zino L., Porfiri M., and Rizzo A., Modelling and predicting the effect of social distancing and travel restrictions on COVID-19 spreading. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18, 20200875, 2021
  Top five most highly cited papers in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface in 2021

• Hagens A., Cordova-Pozo K., Postma M.J., Wilschut J., Zino L., van der Schans J., Reconstructing the effectiveness of policy measures to avoid next-wave COVID-19 infections and deaths using a dynamic simulation model: implications for health technology assessment of vaccination. Frontiers in Medical Technologies, 3, 666581, 2022

• ​Bongiorno C. and Zino L., A multi-layer network model to assess school opening policies during a vaccination campaign: a case study on COVID-19 in France. Applied Network Science, 7, 12, 2022

We developed mathematical models to study and optimize vaccination campaigns, as summarized in the following publications:

• Parino F., Zino L., Calafiore G.C., and Rizzo A., A model predictive control approach to optimally devise a two-dose vaccination rollout: A case study on COVID-19 in Italy. International Journal of Robust and Nonlinear Control, 2021
  Wiley Top Downloaded Article 2021.

• Calafiore G.C., Parino F., Zino L., and Rizzo A., Dynamic Planning of a Two-Dose Vaccination Campaign with Uncertain Supplies. European Journal of Operational Research, 304(3), 1269–1278, 2023

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We developed a mathematical model to study the role of jails in the spread of COVID-19:

• Succar R., Zino L., Silver D., Harvey A., Porfiri M., Evaluating and Optimizing Mass Decarceration as a Pandemic
  Mitigation Strategy. To appear in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2026